Let's lessen conditionality in times of force majeure events. The archaic righteousness of the policy of conditionality of international Institutions amid COVID-19

This article investigates how international decision-making's conditionality aids countries during strenuous economic conditions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines and contrasts the European Union's conditionality policies, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank as the more influential and leading groups of institutions. The article reveals notable policy differences. As opposed to that of the IMF and WB, the EU's approach is more comprehensive and not confined to economic considerations. Those variations aside, the article draws on the same premise: expectations of compliance with the set conditions. While in-depth, structural requirements could guide ordinary decision-making and build up resilient national institutions and policies, this article questions the merits of large-scale comprehensive terms in the face of a situation created by a force majeure or a humanly uncontrollable event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. With no more initial research addressing the specific question of the application and adequacy of conditionality to force majeure emergencies or pandemic situations of the scale of COVID-19, this article argues in favor of a measured and targeted response limited to the development, design, or determination of policy choices that tackle the intended purpose. Also, for validly practical considerations that search for to ensure the better use of aid and avoid distracting or overburdening the recipient countries to the point of risking losses of devastating proportions, the article proposes to revise and limit conditionality during force majeure events to the essential aspects of transparent management of funds for the sole intended purpose. This in itself is a distinct democratic exercise of efficient and accountable public management decision-making.     

新进入者劣势、累积学习经验与中国对外直接投资--兼论“五通指数”的调节作用

利用2006~2018年中国对"一带一路"沿线47个国家的对外直接投资数据,结合跨国公司与组织学习理论,系统考察包括地理及制度性因素在内的"新进入者劣势"对中国"一带一路"直接投资的影响作用,验证对外直接投资累积学习效应及其对"新进入者劣势"的调节作用;同时利用中国与"一带一路"沿线国家"五通指数",系统考察互联互通对中国企业"新进入者劣势"的影响作用。实证结果表明:除经济距离外,其他距离因素均对中国对外直接投资存在显著的抑制作用,累积学习经验及"五通指数"在经济和地理距离方面的调节作用较为明显。企业自身学习经验的累积以及政府在政策、经贸、人文、基础设施方面的互联互通均有助于促进中国企业海外投资,并在一定程度上规避"新进入者劣势"的消极影响。     

How do hotels adapt their pricing strategies to macroeconomic factors?

The hospitality industry is naturally highly sensitive to subtle changes in the external environment, and its performance is affected by various external factors. Therefore, hoteliers should carefully monitor the various macroeconomic indicators affecting the market, when making important strategic management decisions. In particular, hotels’ pricing decisions are important because they play a crucial role in the determination of hotel revenue and in the process of profit maximization. In this paper we classify hotels by business model (i.e., chain management, franchise and independent) and analyze how these different types of hotels in Switzerland adapt their pricing strategies to macroeconomic factors (i.e., exchange rate, room supply and market demand). We find that hotels adopting different business models react differently to the same macro shock. Implications of our findings and future research directions are discussed.     

金融危机下的加工贸易研究

当前,金融危机对全球经济已经造成了严重的影响,对我国来说,虽然金融机构直接受到的冲击不大,但由金融危机引起美、欧等国经济衰退会对我国的出口企业带来较大的冲击,出现货款被拖欠、外需下降、订单减少、贸易摩擦加剧等现象。正是这一背景下,本文从我国加工贸易的历史和现状入手进行分析,并结合我国当前的经济政策,对加工贸易的出路进行分析,以其对加工贸易的发展中转型升级提供一些借鉴。     

Analysis of Intertemporal Efficiency Trends Using Rank Statistics With an Application Evaluating the Macro Economic Performance of OECD Nations

This paper presents two applications of rank statistics to evaluate efficiency performance trends using productive efficiency measures derived through various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. The paper starts with a discussion of the difficulties in obtaining consistent ranks from DEA efficiency ratings. Next, a procedure is proposed to identify intertemporal performance trends using any one of several possible efficiency measures. Another procedure is then developed to test the stability over time of the rank positions of the analyzed units. For each statistical procedure, a small numerical example involving DEA efficiency measures is provided to illustrate the proposed technique. Finally, the new procedures are applied to data reflecting the macro-economic performance of 17 OECD nations in 1979–1988. The outcomes of the application are discussed and contrasted with previous research in this area.     

中国省、市、自治区GDP份额演变及其影响因素分析

基于新经济地理理论,本文应用1978～2005年中国各省市区面板数据,对省级区域GDP份额进行了分析,构建了动态时空模型,建立了多区域经济体的结构分析框架,并将其应用于区域经济增长的动态效应分析,从而将区域经济增长的动态效应分解为相邻效应和整体效应。实证研究发现,无论是宏观经济增长效应还是区域相邻效应,都对中国省、市、自治区经济集聚具有很好的解释力。这对思考中国地区间差距问题提供了一些启示。     

测量中国经济的劳动投入:1982—2000年

本文通过编制可以反映劳动质量变化的劳动投入指数,给出了包括劳动质量改善在内的劳动投入增长,同时明确了单纯从业人数增长和劳动质量改善在劳动投入增长中的相对重要性。本文通过分解的方法进一步探讨了劳动质量改善的源泉。主要结论有,1982—2000年期间,从业人数年均增长率为1.8%,而考虑劳动质量改善之后的劳动投入年均增长率高达3.23%。二者之差为劳动质量改善对劳动投入的贡献,其贡献度超过44%。分区间看,劳动质量改善对劳动投入增长的贡献呈上升趋势,由1982—1987年间的21%上升到1995—2000年的68%。劳动质量改善的源泉主要来自于整体从业人员中第一产业比重的下降,以及从业人员教育水平的提高。     

中国宏观经济金融形势研判

中国经济增长的GDP总体指标与分项指标之间的差异,蕴含着一个需要进行指标调整的逻辑结果,同时也表明中国宏观经济运行中存在着需要进一步探讨的问题。研判中国当前经济金融运行态势,有必要跳出就事论事的窠臼,把中国经济金融运行态势,放在一个历史的纵向视角中去,这样才能得出确切的结论。中国本轮经济过热的源头是净出口,是美国滥发的美元主导下的外源性经济过热。中国本轮经济过热的一切根源,都可以归结为汇率问题,汇率制度扭曲的严重结果是潜在的金融危机。因此,解决中国经济过热问题,就需要从汇率着手,改革和完善金融制度,配套以其他制度改革,实现中国经济宏观调控的软着陆。     

中国城市房地产市场健康标准及实证研究

准确判断房地产市场健康状况是正确实施房地产调控的前提,但国内外并没有一套判断房地产市场健康状况系统的工具,因而关于房地产的发展形势常常引起争议.论文试图从房地产市场与城市总体经济之间合理关系出发,设计一组指标体系,利用房地产与宏观经济对应的相关历史和整体的数据,建立46个经验模型,求得一套房地产市场的多维度健康标准.将健康标准值与城市的实际值进行比对发现:35个大中城市房地产市场均不健康.同时实证研究也较好地验证了研究思路的正确性和健康标准的可信性.